It’s now nearly two weeks since the news came through that
the United Kingdom had voted to leave the EU. The dust is beginning to settle,
but it’s settling into a landscape that no one seems quite sure how to
interpret yet. Most of the pressing questions are concerning the NHS, the
single market and immigration, but there’s enough vitriol already surrounding
those issues and who promised what and who decided actually I didn’t ever say
that (mentioning no names). So whilst the country slowly disintegrates around
us, this is my attempt at explaining what may happen to energy, the environment
and climate regulations in the post-”Brexit” (I seriously hate that word) UK.
Energy
A report in the Guardian suggests that leaving the EU will
make it more difficult for the UK to make the transition to a clean energy
future. Certain analysts have suggested that the uncertainty leaving the EU has
created could mean that investments in clean energy are reduced, which is
pretty problematic seeing as £20 billion is currently required per year to
replace our ageing, dirty power plants. The uncertainty in clean energy
investment in the UK is already apparent, with Siemens putting its investment
in UK wind power on hold following our decision to leave the EU.
There may also be problems for consumers, with pessimistic
experts and the National Grid suggesting that bills will rise and there are
increased chances of power supplies not being met. However, more optimistic
experts suggest that the global movement towards cleaner energy sources and the
UK’s strong climate change targets will keep the transition to cleaner energy
sources progressing as before.
The UK’s energy future will be decided to a large extent by
the negotiations to come between the UK and the EU. If the UK, in a similar way
to Norway, maintains access to Europe’s internal energy market then the UK’s
future energy prospects may be more favourable. On the other hand, a severance
of our membership in the internal energy market could create large amounts of
uncertainty.
The Environment
Writing for The Guardian, Damian Carrington has highlighted
just how low the environment was on the campaigning agenda in the run-up to
voting day. The Institute of Environmental Management and Assessment (IEMA)
have also given a strong indication that voters were not given sufficient
information to take environmental issues into account when they cast their
votes.
Carrington also suggests that voting to leave has created
uncertainty regarding our regulations for environmental issues such as
pollution, wildlife and farming. These concerns are backed up by the
Environment and Sustainability Professionals, who have highlighted the
importance of EU policy and regulation in pushing forward environmental
improvements.
Additionally, the Institute of Environmental Management and
Assessment gathered opinions from 4,000 “experts” concerning the key environment
and sustainability risks and opportunities that could arise from “Brexit”. An
overwhelming majority of these experts have indicated that the UK has
“benefitted from the EU environment and climate policy and that European
membership has been positive for UK business”. Furthermore, 82% believed that
operating within the EU provides a more stable policy landscape which is more
effective for the environment over the medium to long term and 81% that
European laws and regulations provide important frameworks for delivering
environmental protection and improvements. Lastly, two-thirds believe that waste,
recycling and circular economy performance would be reduced with Britain
outside of the EU. None of that sounds good to me…
Climate Change
The news doesn’t appear to be good when it comes to the UK
meeting its climate change targets either. Amber Rudd, the climate and energy
secretary, has said that leaving the EU will make it more challenging for us to
play a significant role in tackling climate change. Although Rudd has given reassurances
that “our commitment to dealing with it [climate change] has not gone away”,
this has not been enough to placate all concerned, with Greenpeace suggesting
that Rudd’s “soothing words are not enough” and that the decision to leave the
EU will decrease the confidence of investors in or green energy market.
Andrea Leadson, one of the three remaining conservative leadership
hopefuls, has also promised that the government remains totally committed to
meeting its climate change targets no matter what happens in our negotiations
in leaving the EU. Leadson has also stated that obligations under the Climate
Change Act will not change following the vote. This Act requires the UK to
reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by 80% from 1990 levels by 2050. The
current government have paved a way for this target to be met, which will
hopefully survive the likely tumultuous changes to come.
There are, however, concerns as to where the “Brexit” vote
leaves us with regard to our commitments to the Paris Agreement. The EU
countries were widely expected to sign in unison, but now the ratification of
the Agreement may be delayed for years until the UK has formally left the
Union. Ed Miliband has called on David Cameron to ratify the Paris agreement
before he leaves office, but the prime minister has not yet spoken of this issue.
However, UK support for the Paris Agreement would seem to be more likely now
that climate change sceptic Boris Johnson has pulled out of the race to be
conservative leader. Small victories…
Conclusion
At this stage, as with most things in our post-”Brexit”
landscape, the future of the environmental, energy and climate change
regulations in the UK are posing several questions which cannot be answered
definitively at this time. Although some politicians have preached
re-assurance, the initial signs are not hopeful. Much will depend on the coming
weeks, months and years of negotiations and political changes. Let’s just hope
that the lights stay on in the meantime….
Til next time
Rob
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