Climate Change Is Happening Faster Than We Thought And Could Get Even Worse

How about that for a clickbaity title for a blogpost. Although I didn’t quite go for “You won’t believe what scientists are saying about climate change now! This will really shock you!” or "5 ways climate change will impact you. Number 4 is crazy!" I haven’t reached those depths…

Yet…

After the depressing nature of my last piece on how Brexit is leading to uncertain future for the UK environment and energy sectors, I really really was trying to find something more positive to write about today.  But then I ended up deciding to go for how climate change could doom us all. Cheery.

By now, most of us have some awareness of climate change. And yes, despite that chilly spell we had a few weeks ago, global warming is real. Not only is it happening, but it seems to be happening quicker than previously anticipated.

Last week, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) informed us that June 2016 marked the 14th consecutive month of record temperatures. The temperatures over the first half of this year, combined with record carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere and early and fast Arctic sea melting indicate that climate change is quickening.

News this week says that scientists have been taken by surprise by the record temperatures that have occurred so far in 2016 and have put us on track for Earth’s hottest year on record. David Carlson, director of the WMO’s climate research programme, said on Monday:

“What concerns me most is that we didn’t anticipate these temperature jumps. We predicted nothing like the rises we’ve seen. Extreme events like flooding have become the new normal”

So things really seem to be hotting up where the Earth’s climate is concerned. And there is more to be potentially concerned about. And that is methane.

You may be familiar with methane from chemistry classes at school when you messed around with the gas taps and occasionally used it to fuel a Bunsen burner. Methane also made the news last week due to viral videos from Siberia of the ground wobbling due to large bubbles of gas beneath the surface.  But although all of that seemed quite fun, where climate change is concerned, methane may not be very fun at all…

Methane plays a significant role in warming the Earth’s atmosphere and hundreds of millions of tons of it are currently contained beneath the Arctic permafrost. Warmer temperatures in the Arctic Circle are permitting the methane gas to move to the surface through soil that normally would be frozen solid. A mass release of methane from the Arctic permafrost could therefore heighten the greenhouse effect, leading to further warming and further methane releases. A positive feedback loop with not very positive consequences, if you will. Russian scientists are investigating whether some craters near Bely Island could be due to explosions from this build-up of gas, suggesting it could be released rapidly in large quantities.

Lastly, Siberia is experiencing massive wildfires right now, which can cause peatlands to thaw and release carbon, from what was a sink for millennia, to the atmosphere. And once again, more warming could lead to more fires, more release of greenhouses gases to the atmosphere, more warming and so on…. Russia is trying to downplay the size of the wildfires that are currently raging. Not like them to try and cover something up.

Fires, shown by red dots, in Siberia on July 22nd 2016, with a smoke plume extending thousands of miles west.

And it’s not just changes to the terrestrial landscape which we should be wary of when it comes to the release of methane. The clathrate gun hypothesis states that increases in sea temperatures could trigger a sudden release of methane from methane clathrate components in the seabed. A runaway breakdown of methane clathrates could drastically alter ocean acidification and, of course, the composition of the atmosphere and greenhouse effect.  Times when this process may have occurred in the past are linked to events such as the Permian-Triassic extinction event (or the "Great Dying") 252 million years ago, in which up to 95% of marine species became extinct. So probably best to try and avoid that happening.

Given that the clathrate deposits destablilise from the deepest part of their stability zone, which is typically hundreds of metres below the sea bed, the process of ocean sediment warming and methane release would take a thousand years or more. However, once started, the clathrate gun hypothesis outlines an irreversible, runaway process. This isn’t one of those problems we can fix easily if it begins…. But given the far off nature of the problem no one outside of academia is probably concerned about it.

So is there anything we can do to help our understanding of what is going on, and what may be going on in the event of even greater climate change?

David Carlson suggests that we need to get better at predicting “not only how frequent and intense [extreme] events will be – but how long they will last”. This will require better global weather and climate data, particular from areas currently lacking in detail, such as Central Africa, Central America and the Arctic.

And if that’s not enough to convince you that something needs to be done, Leonardo DiCaprio thinks “we are the last generation that hasa chance to stop climate change before it’s too late”. Here's to you Leo

Scaremongerng complete

Til next time

Rob

What “Brexit” may mean for energy, the environment and climate change in the UK

It’s now nearly two weeks since the news came through that the United Kingdom had voted to leave the EU. The dust is beginning to settle, but it’s settling into a landscape that no one seems quite sure how to interpret yet. Most of the pressing questions are concerning the NHS, the single market and immigration, but there’s enough vitriol already surrounding those issues and who promised what and who decided actually I didn’t ever say that (mentioning no names). So whilst the country slowly disintegrates around us, this is my attempt at explaining what may happen to energy, the environment and climate regulations in the post-”Brexit” (I seriously hate that word) UK.

Energy

A report in the Guardian suggests that leaving the EU will make it more difficult for the UK to make the transition to a clean energy future. Certain analysts have suggested that the uncertainty leaving the EU has created could mean that investments in clean energy are reduced, which is pretty problematic seeing as £20 billion is currently required per year to replace our ageing, dirty power plants. The uncertainty in clean energy investment in the UK is already apparent, with Siemens putting its investment in UK wind power on hold following our decision to leave the EU.

There may also be problems for consumers, with pessimistic experts and the National Grid suggesting that bills will rise and there are increased chances of power supplies not being met. However, more optimistic experts suggest that the global movement towards cleaner energy sources and the UK’s strong climate change targets will keep the transition to cleaner energy sources progressing as before.

The UK’s energy future will be decided to a large extent by the negotiations to come between the UK and the EU. If the UK, in a similar way to Norway, maintains access to Europe’s internal energy market then the UK’s future energy prospects may be more favourable. On the other hand, a severance of our membership in the internal energy market could create large amounts of uncertainty.

The Environment

Writing for The Guardian, Damian Carrington has highlighted just how low the environment was on the campaigning agenda in the run-up to voting day. The Institute of Environmental Management and Assessment (IEMA) have also given a strong indication that voters were not given sufficient information to take environmental issues into account when they cast their votes.

Carrington also suggests that voting to leave has created uncertainty regarding our regulations for environmental issues such as pollution, wildlife and farming. These concerns are backed up by the Environment and Sustainability Professionals, who have highlighted the importance of EU policy and regulation in pushing forward environmental improvements.

Additionally, the Institute of Environmental Management and Assessment gathered opinions from 4,000 “experts” concerning the key environment and sustainability risks and opportunities that could arise from “Brexit”. An overwhelming majority of these experts have indicated that the UK has “benefitted from the EU environment and climate policy and that European membership has been positive for UK business”. Furthermore, 82% believed that operating within the EU provides a more stable policy landscape which is more effective for the environment over the medium to long term and 81% that European laws and regulations provide important frameworks for delivering environmental protection and improvements. Lastly, two-thirds believe that waste, recycling and circular economy performance would be reduced with Britain outside of the EU. None of that sounds good to me…

Climate Change

The news doesn’t appear to be good when it comes to the UK meeting its climate change targets either. Amber Rudd, the climate and energy secretary, has said that leaving the EU will make it more challenging for us to play a significant role in tackling climate change. Although Rudd has given reassurances that “our commitment to dealing with it [climate change] has not gone away”, this has not been enough to placate all concerned, with Greenpeace suggesting that Rudd’s “soothing words are not enough” and that the decision to leave the EU will decrease the confidence of investors in or green energy market.

Andrea Leadson, one of the three remaining conservative leadership hopefuls, has also promised that the government remains totally committed to meeting its climate change targets no matter what happens in our negotiations in leaving the EU. Leadson has also stated that obligations under the Climate Change Act will not change following the vote. This Act requires the UK to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by 80% from 1990 levels by 2050. The current government have paved a way for this target to be met, which will hopefully survive the likely tumultuous changes to come.

There are, however, concerns as to where the “Brexit” vote leaves us with regard to our commitments to the Paris Agreement. The EU countries were widely expected to sign in unison, but now the ratification of the Agreement may be delayed for years until the UK has formally left the Union. Ed Miliband has called on David Cameron to ratify the Paris agreement before he leaves office, but the prime minister has not yet spoken of this issue. However, UK support for the Paris Agreement would seem to be more likely now that climate change sceptic Boris Johnson has pulled out of the race to be conservative leader. Small victories…

Conclusion

At this stage, as with most things in our post-”Brexit” landscape, the future of the environmental, energy and climate change regulations in the UK are posing several questions which cannot be answered definitively at this time. Although some politicians have preached re-assurance, the initial signs are not hopeful. Much will depend on the coming weeks, months and years of negotiations and political changes. Let’s just hope that the lights stay on in the meantime….

Til next time

Rob

Links:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/28/leave-vote-makes-uks-transition-to-clean-energy-harder-say-experts

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/28/siemens-freezes-new-uk-wind-power-investment-following-”Brexit”-vote

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/29/leaving-the-eu-will-make-it-harder-for-uk-to-tackle-climate-change

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/damian-carrington-blog/2016/jun/24/uks-out-vote-is-a-red-alert-for-the-environment

http://www.iema.net/news/news/2016/06/22/environment-and-sustainability-professionals-reveal-top-10-views-on-%E2%80%9C”Brexit”%E2%80%9D/

http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2463910/leadsom-insists-government-action-on-climate-change-will-not-waver-post-”Brexit”

http://time.com/4389923/”Brexit”-climate-change/